A blog for a friend

I was talking to her and she wanted me to type it up because she was in a similar boat that I was in.

Do we remember from last time that the conversation I had with that girl who shall not be named went really bad because I did one thing I should not have done.

What I did was plan how the whole conversation would have gone. This is like trying to plot for a comedy show, where you need to know how the audience will feel. For me, it was similar. I had an input (the stuff I was gonna say) which. when placed through the ‘black box’, an output (the stuff she says in response). Whatever happens inside the black box I cannot predict. Hence, I cannot predict the consequence.

When I say I cannot predict, I mean it, because you can practically think of all the possibilities and still fail. I can, like a computer program, list all the possibilities on how it will do. A good example of this would be trying to predict the combinations of lottery. There are a lot of them: 6 numbers from 1-49. There are approximately 13 million combinations. When I predict all the possibilities on how she will react to my questions or remarks, I will have to make sure those are all the possibilities. But how will I know?

Even if I do find out all of them, I still have to predict what will happen after that. You may recall how branch works in highschool statistics:

X
/\
X X
/\ /\
X  X  X  X
/\  /\  /\  /\
X X X X X X X X

As you branch off the first one into two, each one branches off into two more, and so on. The sequence becomes 1, 2, 4, 8, … , 2^n (where n is a positive integer). Now look, when you predict she will go act, let’s say a(1), you got to predict b(1), c(1), etc… then that becomes one possibility. But if she went a(2), then all those you just predicted (ie., b(1), c(1)…) are no longer applicable. Now you see what I mean when I say this is screwy to try to predict the outcome.

A few friends told me not to do this, mainly because it hasn’t happened yet, so there is no point to really think about it. The best way is to know your objective and wait until the moment where you will act out that objective. For me, it would have been best if I had not thought about how she would have answered, because I honestly thought she got my hints, but the truth is that is not the only possibility or branch that there is. In fact, she did end up going out of my expectation, with left me dumbfounded. I had several pauses when I did not know what I should say best when she gave me some peculiar reaction. Because my mind had already tended towards one particular trend, it was difficult to revert back and try to go back to where she was bringing me. If you started off at a(0), you can go on to a(1), a(2), or a(n)… But if you started in further branches, such as a(1), or even somewhere further like g(1), where (1) is a particular branch, you got to go back to a(0) before you can move on to the appropriate level when she gives you the reaction.

The conclusion is, worry less about it and it should probably go smoother than you have planned. Plans almost never go as they are expected. There is no perfection; that’s why there’s no 100% accuracy on the expectation. Also a theory based on Economics would be useful here, which is about expectation. If you set expectation low, the actual result is easier to beat expectation. Contrarily, if you set expectation really high, then it is unlikely to beat expectation. When the result is below expectation, there is dissatisfaction and otherwise if it is above expectation, there is satsifaction. That is why new stocks need to beat expectation on their first market entrance. If they lose on their first try, then they are goners.

That is it.

1 comment

  1. C says:

    I think I’m disagreeing to this. I think. But that’s only because it’s late and i’m brain dead now.
    In fact, I don’t even know if what I wrote makes sense. Go check it out. lol

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